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Radnor Geopolitical Report
by Andrey Bulychev Major democratic countries are overlooking or ignoring one very important trend in politics that could present a threat to the very existence of free-market democracy in the world. This trend is the pursuit of world dominance by the People's Republic of China.
China has today the largest population in the world of 1.3 billion people, which increases annually by one percent or 13 million. China’s GDP equals nearly $2 trillion (fourth largest in the world after the United States, Germany and Japan), while per capita income remains very low at $6,193. The average salary of industrial workers is $1,500-$1,700 per year.
China has the largest standing army in the world. It is the only army that has Net Force as a separate branch. This is aimed at military and civic communications systems of China’s adversaries; applications could disrupt essential elements of day-to-day life in any country of the world and could include banking, telephones, etc. What will happen if you are not able to withdraw cash from your account or pay for petrol with your credit card?
Territorial disputes and enemies
China has territorial disputes with 11 out of 24 neighboring countries including India, Japan, Vietnam, the Philippines and others. The dispute between China and Russia (Soviet Union) presumably was settled in 1991 when an agreement was signed concerning a 4,000-mile border demarcation. However, China contends that this agreement has a term of only 30 years. China rejected Russia’s proposal to sign it in perpetuity.
China has make no secret that it views the United States as an enemy and not just as a competitor. In the early 1990s China formally declared the USA as its main enemy. At the same time the United States has remained China’s major business partner since the end of the 1970s. Cumulative trade surplus with the USA for 1990–2004 is about $860 billion; it is also over $400 billion in China’s trade surplus with EU countries. Some experts believe that $1 billion in trade surplus with China is equal to 15,000 lost jobs in the USA.
 Andrey Bulychev is a Moscow-based political analyst and consultant specializing in the issues of international security and studies of placement of political forces in Russia. From 1997 through 2002 he worked as an adviser with the UNDP Moscow office. Recently, Mr. Bulychev initiated the publication of books of leading foreign political consultants in Russian.
He is the past President of the European Association of Political Consultants and is the International Association of Political Consultants’ Secretary for Europe. |
Since 1949, democracy has been considered officially by China as 'the instrument of imperialism and revisionism.' We all remember the massacre at Tiananmen square. The USA and major European countries introduced economic sanctions against China after Tiananmen but the sanctions lasted less than a year. Today, the current Chinese regime continues repressions against Christians and followers of other religions, members of meditation associations, minorities, human rights groups, etc. But we do not see any reaction from the USA and the international community that used to be very sensitive to these issues in other parts of the world. Why is China somehow exempt from criticism? Perhaps the answer lies in China's growing export power.
Recently, the Chinese regime changed its attitude toward democracy after long internal debates within the Communist Party. The first White Book on the development of democracy in China was published in October 2005. In essence, it says that: ‘Because every country has different conditions as it develops, the path to democracy in China cannot be similar to that in other countries.’ In other words, this means that the regime does not recognize that democracies all over the world are governed by general rules (free competitive elections, basic freedoms, human rights, etc). In China's understanding, democracy is the leading role of the Communist Party and 'dictatorship of the people.' The Book says that the major element for a democratic political system is 'support and satisfaction of the majority of the population.'
The Government of China published its Annual Report on December 20, 2005. Interestingly, the issue of development of democracy replaced standard declarations on the success of the Chinese economy. The Report defines 2005 as “the year of the creation of basic democracy in China.” The growing protests of peasants and farmers against current agrarian policies of the Government are interpreted as 'wide participation of rural masses in a democratic process.' The Report states that construction of ‘democracy with national specifics’ will become a priority task of the Communist Party for the future.
It seems that March 2005 ‘Tulip Revolution’ in Kighizia, close to China’s border, frightened the Chinese leadership. Chinese media are publishing many interviews with local political scientists who persistently express the opinion that the policies of the Communist Party of China could not be compared with the oppression practiced by the CPSU. The Government's Annual Report develops the ideas expressed in the White Book, published by the Central Committee of the CPC last November. It ignores growing protest movements in the country. At the same time the Government has further limited the access of the population to Western media and information on Western democracies, and took new steps to restrict the abilities of Western companies to enter the Chinese media markets.
We all know from history since Stalin’s time, and through current developments in a number of countries, how this 'support of the population' has been gained by authoritarian regimes. Currently, the Communist Party of China has about 70 million members. For several years now it is actively recruiting businessmen.
However, the protest movement inside China is growing. People are not satisfied with rampant corruption of the authorities and the growing income gap. They also demonstrate in support of democracy. A vivid example of this disaffection was shown when over 100,000 people demonstrated in Hong Kong in early December.
Chinese pursuit of dominance is being analyzed by many experts around the world. One of the most interesting insights is provided by Dr. Constantine Menges, one of the authors of the Reagan Doctrine. In his book China: The Gathering Threat, Dr. Menges identifies eight phases of probable Chinese policy toward global dominance.
I. Normalization of economic relations with the democracies (1978 and continuing).
A period of controlled economic liberalization and normalization of relations with the West to promote economic, technological and military modernization of China.
II. Asian regional persuasion and coercion with global geostrategic and economic positioning (Late 1980s and continuing).
Former Chinese President Jiang Zemin said once: ‘Intimidate with force, seduce with money.’ In the early 1990s China changed its military strategy. Instead of following a coastal defense principle, China decided to move its first line of defense to a chain of islands on the rim of the South China Sea (Japan, Taiwan, Philippines, etc.). The South China Sea was then declared to be China’s sovereign territory. It is important to note that half of the trade transit routes pass through this Sea. China occupied several small islands and reefs of Spratley and Paracel islands and began construction of runaways and other military installations.
For example, the Spratley Islands contain rich fishing grounds and the potential for gas and oil deposits have caused this archipelago to be claimed in its entirety by China, Taiwan and Vietnam, while portions are claimed by Malaysia and the Philippines. The Paracel Islands also are surrounded by productive fishing grounds and by potential oil and gas reserves.
Simultaneously, China actively works with local business communities in Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines and other countries offering them lucrative opportunities in the mainland. The only purpose is to exert pressure on local governments. The Chinese leaders learned a lot of lessons from taking over Hong Kong and are trying to apply them now in other countries.
III. China takes Taiwan and is preponderant in Asia (2007–2008?).
This might be achieved by means of political and covert action or by military force, creating a risk of war with the USA. Lack of an American response will be perceived as an 'Asian Munich' and will undermine the credibility of the US in Asia, severely reducing current levels of security cooperation.
In the mid 1990s China gave the United States government its war plans. These plans envisaged nuclear strikes against US military facilities in Asia and cities in the US should the US attempt to defend Taiwan. This was a very clear warning from China. However the USA ignored this and continues cooperation with China. The Clinton administration was even talking about a 'strategic partnership with China.'
IV. China dominates Asia following the end of the US alliance with Japan (2008–2012).
China’s control of Taiwan intimidates Asian neighbors and increases China's economic base. China, working covertly with pacifist and anti-US groups, persuades Japan and South Korea to terminate existing security treaties with the United States. Thus, the US will loose its status as an Asian military power.
V. Neutralization of Western Europe (2010–2014).
China expands its nuclear forces above US and Russian levels. China uses financial incentives and political/covert actions to persuade many states in Europe to end participation in NATO. China woos European support by shifting a large portion of its economic opportunities from the United States to European corporations.
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China moves a large part of its massive hard currency reserves to the Euro from the US dollar. China uses its influence with anti-American oil-producing regimes (Libya, Iran, Venezuela and others) to urge sharp price increases for NATO members, while offering a discount to neutral countries.
VI. China takes the Russian Far East (2014–2020).
China’s nuclear might surpasses that of Russia. China deploys a fully effective missile defense. China persuades Russia to 'return' the Russian Far East or offers to 'buy' this region for a nominal sum. A Treaty between Russia and the Qin dynasty signed in 1860 is declared unjustified.
VII. Global preponderance for China (2020–2023).
There will be many pro-China regimes in the world. Several EU countries already have given the United States a 'heads up' not to expect their support in a conflict with China because of growing trade ties. The USA will be isolated in strategic terms. Western Europe will remain neutral. China will control most of the important transit areas for world trade. Since 1999, a Chinese company controls both ends of the Panama Canal and has a large presence in Port-Said at Suez. China is working toward acquiring a monopoly on advanced computer chips and other high-tech products. This will give China the capacity for 'strategic, economic and technological denial.'
VIII. China is dominant in the world (2025-?).
With dominance in offensive nuclear forces and an effective monopoly on missile defense, China moves from global preponderance to global dominance.
What does this all mean?
This prognosis could sound naïve as it does not take into account many important factors and developments. However it forces politicians to think about the future.
Russia as well follows a very shortsighted policy of entering into strategic partnerships with China. What is the role China wants Russia to play? Does Russia fully understand the consequences of its strategic political and military partnership with China for international developments? Which side would Russia take if a major military conflict regarding Taiwan happened? Do these relations mean that Russian leaders prefer 'Chinese style democracy?' Are we heading back to the Cold War period with the US and NATO opposing China, Russia and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization?
Current developments in China as well as Chinese foreign policy show that the political changes envisaged by economic engagement since 1979 are not anywhere near. In fact, the USA - declared as the 'main enemy' - does everything to help China modernize its military and economic capabilities. It is obvious that the interests of big US businesses in certain areas come into direct contradiction with US national security interests. To find a solution to this contradiction is extremely difficult but is it not also urgent?
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