by Ken Feltman

Canadian Election Special

Taking a test drive

As a boy, I learned a lot about the differences between Canada and the United States when I went to the general store near our vacation cabin on Batchawana Bay, Ontario. In those days the Canadian and U.S. dollars traded within a few cents of parity, one way or the other. Some summers the Canadian dollar would be a penny or two above the U.S. dollar. Then, the clerks would ask me to dig in my pocket for a penny or two more to make up the difference for the lower value of the U.S. dollar.

But in other summers, when the U.S. dollar was stronger, the clerks did not give me a penny or two back. Finally, I asked a clerk and she looked at me and said, ‘Most Americans don’t even think about it.’ She went on to take care of another customer and I waited until she finished and asked for my pennies. She refused me, saying ‘We’re a smaller country.’

That was news to me. All I knew was that Canada looked to be very big on my map. My mother explained that the woman was referring to population. Population-size rather that map-size was a new concept for me.
 

As we traveled about Canada, from Nova Scotia to Alberta, I confronted the Canadian change-making theory again and again. Then, on a vacation on the west coast of Florida, in an area with many vacationing snowbirds from Canada, I watched an American clerk make change at parity even though the Canadian dollar was worth less than the U.S. dollar at the time. Thus did I generalize that Americans are less careful with their money. What did I learn about Canadians?

Watching the pennies

About ten years ago I happened to meet a man of my age who had spent summers in New Brunswick and I asked him whether he had the same experience with the exchange rates. ‘Oh yes,’ he said. ‘My Father always gave us Canadian currency so we wouldn’t be taken advantage of.’ Who knows how he and I were affected by these experiences over pennies? Who knows what secret resentments lurk in the deepest recesses of our minds? Other than the early experience with the exchange rate, I have always found Canadians to be among the most helpful and delightful of people. Still, I might be a bit more circumspect when dealing with Canadians.

Americans might be advised to be circumspect about yesterday’s Canadian elections. They are not what they seem. The victory by the Conservatives does not signal a change in Canadian thinking about much of anything. Are there any lessons in the results? Yes, and that’s the big one. There are others, but not the lessons that have been reported thus far in the U.S. media or bragged about by some Conservative politicians. In fact, the Conservatives did not really oust the Liberals after a twelve-year run. Instead, the voters ousted a scandal tainted Liberal government.

Just as Americans pride themselves on the three virtues of life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness (happiness was an 18th century euphemism for wealth), Canadians pride themselves on the three virtues of peace, order and good government. The chaotic nature of going about securing life, liberty and wealth contrasts with the Canadian desire for steady, placid and transparently honest government. Canadian voters decided that the Liberals were not delivering and then they decided to try something else.

Many voters moved left, not right

The Liberals lost about 30 seats in the 308 seat Parliament but the Conservatives, with a gain of about 25, are far short of a clear majority, which the Conservative Party leadership had predicted in early January during a private briefing in Washington. Conservatives, a recent amalgamation of two center-right parties, downplayed social issues and focused on bread and butter. They will form a government but it will be difficult. Unlike the Liberals, who had two like-minded minority parties to work with, the Conservatives must deal with those same left-inclined parties.
 

As the results are analyzed, I predict that researchers will determine that the growth of suburban voters (going to the right in Canada just as they have tended to do in the United States) is an increasingly important factor in Canadian politics. The Bloc Quebecois (the separatist party in Quebec) lost only a few seats and votes among those with connections to organized labor were changed only marginally. The big gainer is the National Democratic Party, outspoken on social liberalism and anti-American. It went from 18 seats to about 30. So we can conclude that many Liberal voters protested not by voting Conservative but by voting for a further-left party.

Clearly, a big story will be the emergence of Canada’s West as a new force in Canadian politics—probably a transforming force—that will need to be reckoned with by the Eastern provinces that have long dominated. The voters showed receptivity to changes in their healthcare system to alleviate some of the delays in treatment that arise in any system that rations care. Americans tend to ration care through the cost of healthcare, Canadians through time in the queue awaiting care. But voters showed no inclination to tolerate an assertive Conservative social agenda.

In essence, Canada’s voters, embarrassed by the scandal of the ruling Liberal Party, decided to take the Conservatives for a test drive. But the Canadians are not buying the car, merely taking it for a test drive. If the Conservatives are too full of themselves—and early statements indicate that some of the local Conservative leaders are certainly very full of something—then we can expect another election very quickly with the Liberals back in power.

Minority governments have a difficult time lasting more than 18 months in Canada. The clock is running. How the Conservatives interpret their victory and implement their programs will determine whether they can entice Canadians into purchasing their model and giving them more time.

My advice to Americans: Canadians may decide that they don’t need a new car, just a tune-up for the old car. Watch the pennies.

Please click here to review previous issues.