Inside Washington's Headlines

by Ken Feltman

Three districts may forecast the 2006 elections

Congressional Democrats had been enjoying a streak of unbroken good news. When they learned that their chief nemesis in the House was about to resign, they were euphoric. They anticipated more problems for Republicans as the war, the Libby case and the Abramoff scandal continue to heat up. But just at that moment, a political perfect storm hit the Democrats. First, they celebrated the good news: Discredited Republican Rep. Tom DeLay (Tex.) announced he was resigning from the House of Representatives. Next, they winced at the bad news: Rep. Cynthia McKinney (D-Ga.) got into yet another racially tinged confrontation.

The news media concentrated on the silly sordidness of McKinney’s latest foray into divisiveness and ignored the real sordidness surrounding DeLay’s departure. Stunned at their continuing inability to take advantage of Republican blunders and embarrassments, the Democrats mumbled, whined and finally got McKinney quieted down. By then, DeLay was old news - forgotten, even though he will not be gone from Congress for weeks. The McKinney incident was more irresistible to editors and publishers than the fall of a titan.

The choice of what to cover on page one and what to put inside proves once again what a powerful force race is in American politics. We don’t want to admit it, we don’t want to talk about it, but it is there, all the time, just waiting for something to put it on the front page again. Some politicians - of all races - use race to their advantage. Some - of all races - try to move beyond race. It is not easy.

Years ago, I sat talking with future Rep. Don Payne (D-N.J.), a successful Northern New Jersey businessman and local politician. He was laying the groundwork for a campaign for the Congressional seat of respected Rep. Peter Rodino (D-N.J.), who rose to national prominence for his even-handed conduct as chair of the Watergate hearings. Rodino’s courteous and respectful attitude set a tone that permitted the House - and the nation - to assess the facts unemotionally and to reach the necessary conclusion that President Nixon needed to go. Although Rodino was retiring, running for the Newark-based seat of such a revered man was no easy thing.

Payne realized that Rodino had made the residents of the blighted and poverty stricken district proud. His constituents, mostly African Americans, respected Rodina and knew that he respected them. Time and again, when Payne asked voters what they most liked about Rodina, the response was that Rodina respected them. Most of Payne’s opponents for the Democratic nomination were centering their campaigns on racial politics.

‘I’m not running ... to tell whitey off’

'Racism does divide us,’ Payne said, ‘but it divides us even more when we blacks engage in it, too. Black racism gives the white majority another reason to continue white racism. I’m not running as a black man who wants to tell whitey off.’

Gradually, by appealing to the better and not to the baser natures of the voters of the district, Payne pulled ahead and then away. He was elected and did in Congress what he had done as a businessman: He succeeded. He became head of the Black Caucus and drew criticism from other black members of Congress because, among other things, he was not vocal enough in condemning white racism. Still, his district was proud of him. Their wisdom in choosing him was vindicated when he worked with Republicans as well as Democrats and produced a stream of legislation that benefited minorities. Payne made progress while the vocal Congressional minorities got attention in the media and very little else. ‘I have things I want to do,’ Payne said. ‘Others have points they want to score.’

Scoring points

Cynthia McKinney’s career in politics has been about scoring points. She must have figured that she would score more when she barged through the security perimeter as she entered a House office building. Full of unconcealed anger, she was not wearing the pin identifying her as a member of Congress. She was wearing a new hairdo and the customary chip on her shoulder. Time may tell exactly what transpired but this McKinney move was typical of the way she goes through life: She seeks out and finds reason for outrage. She does that well. Why is it that the voters of a crime-infested and desperate Newark-based district can send two capable leaders to Washington while the voters of a Georgia district - combining equally crime-infested and desperate Atlanta voters with well-to-do suburban whites and middle-class African Americans - can send and then resend an abrasive divider to Washington? The answer says something about who might control Congress after November’s elections.

But before we look at that, let’s take a look at the suburban Houston district of Tom DeLay. Houston has exploded with newcomers and the resulting sprawl has created districts with voters who tend to reflect traditional Texas conservatism, but with a smattering of social conservatism that goes beyond the old racism and includes a sizable segment of the religious right. Many right-of-center Texans have abandoned the progressive racial and social welfare policies of fellow Texan Lyndon Johnson. They have migrated to the Republican Party, leaving left-of-center Democrats to take charge of the Democratic Party.

The winnowing process among Texas Democrats continued as the liberals pushed out the centrists. The liberal Democrats, once in charge, soon became concerned with their party’s loss of power in an increasingly conservative state. They did what politicians do everywhere: They erected barriers to prevent the inevitable. They gerrymandered state legislative and Congressional districts to prevent the new majority from capturing more seats. They used the courts to protect their unwarranted majority. Naturally, the emergent Republicans wanted their rightful share and they wanted it now. The time was right for a determined and shrewd political operator like Tom DeLay.

Hubris exposed

Increasingly liberal and out of touch with mainstream Texans, the Democrats used extreme means to keep control. DeLay decided to use equally extreme measures to get what he thought was only fair. But he hired some sharp operators to help him in the battle and they made decisions, with or without his knowledge and agreement, that have come back to haunt him. A politician’s hubris is often exposed by overreaching staff members. They think they are doing what the boss wants. Maybe they are. They think no one will ever notice. Maybe no one will. This time, DeLay‘s success placed him right in the center of a bulls-eye and the Texas Democrats took target practice. They took shots at DeLay with every fair and many unfair means. They courted the media. They agitated the criminal justice system. They got him.

Despite the embarrassment and legal difficulties that caused DeLay to give up his House leadership post, most observers figured DeLay could keep his Congressional seat if he wished. They were wrong. The voters in DeLay’s district have a lot in common with those in Payne’s New Jersey district. The Houston suburban voters watched all the manipulation and pandering, all the legal maneuvering and supercilious statements. They decided that the whole thing was an embarrassment. DeLay was at the center of the embarrassment. It was time for him to go.

White guilt and rednecks

Their decision is one that will come harder in McKinney’s district. Why? One reason is what some call reverse white racism which leads to white-guilt voters. These whites, it seems, are among the most persistent when it comes to seeking out and finding minorities to support. In McKinney’s district they team up with an underclass that likes McKinney’s in-your-face style. But they are a declining percentage of the voting population and are the victims of gerrymandering. Yes, these prosperous white voters are victims - victims of the Congressional redistricting process.

It is not just a phenomenon on the left. The remnants of redneck racism and job-loss nativism also cause an occasional kooky, even vicious, election result. Look especially at the states of the old South and the industrial cities of the rusting North to see some elected officials who got there by appealing to the basest instincts, not the base voters. But the opportunities for these exploiters of fear are being eroded away by computer programmers.

State after state has drawn new electoral districts configured with the aid of powerful computer programs that put just so many voters of a certain type into a district, while excluding just enough other voters. This is the most sophisticated gerrymandering yet. DeLay used this weapon in Texas to overcome the brute strength of the Democrats’ outright refusal to redistrict realistically. DeLay removed some reliable Republican areas from his own district to strengthen adjacent districts for the GOP. He may now regret that but his redistricted map did result in several more Republican winners last election day.

Predictable results or a tidal wave?

The programs take into account not just the current voters and their voting habits but anticipated population growth and changes in the makeup of the voting population over time. The result is districts that are much more predictable than ever before, which means that there are fewer truly competitive districts. Barring an electoral tidal wage, the coming election will echo the last election. But some suggest that a tidal wave, similar to 1994 when the Republicans grabbed control, is coming. So the questions keep coming: How big will the tidal wave be? The three districts discussed here could provide a reliable clue. In the weeks and days before the election, researchers will be combing these districts looking for clues to help them predict election day.

The voters of DeLay’s district are not burdened by the well-meaning, well-to-do white guilt that motivates many voters in McKinney’s district. They seem to want a representative who will do a good job and not embarrass them. They are not so insecure as to need to believe that they are doing good by voting for a person of another race, possibly while ignoring that person’s unsoundness. With DeLay gone, if the Democratic candidate does much better than the computer calls for, the Democrats may be headed for a happy night in Southern and Western districts that have been reliable for social conservatives in recent elections.

Payne’s district, although gentrifying, and with more and more Hispanics, does not have enough race-driven white liberals to make much difference. So the voters can make decisions on - think of it! - the merits. They can pick the candidate who appeals to their best judgment. If they go decidedly more Democratic, figure that the Republicans are in trouble in marginally Republican districts in the Northeast and Midwest.
 

McKinney’s district may be the best bellwether. If those Republicans who normally vote for the Republican candidate join liberal white voters and support McKinney, or stay home, expect the tidal wave to wash away GOP control of Congress.

Keep two other thoughts in mind:

• Absent a tidal wave far more powerful than 1994’s, the Republicans should hang on. The computers have eliminated much of the suspense. One uncharted fact: Retirements by long-serving Republicans could be a wildcard. Districts with no incumbent on the ballot are the first to switch parties in a storm.
   
• Race is still a big part of politics and the voters most influenced by race are white. White liberals, the white-guilt voters, may seem to vote against their own self-interests to reach out and support minority candidates, regardless of the suitability of those candidates. Their counterparts on the right - Rednecks - are just as reliable the other way - they vote against the candidates and interests of minorities. Both the white liberals and the redneck voters are declining in influence. They make a lot of noise but they have little real impact. Men and women like New Jersey’s Don Payne are the ones who accomplish things, out of the headlines, away from the distracting fights. They get elected and reelected, regardless of national trends and news. That will happen again this November. They have a bond of respect with their constituents that makes for deep roots against the winds of current headlines.

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copyright © 2006 Radnor Inc.