|
The
Decision-Maker
by
Ken Feltman
and Louis-Lyonel Voiron
Special Report from London
Since British authorities announced the plot to
blow up airplanes bound for the United States, we have received dozens of calls
and emails asking how we could so accurately predict the timing of the latest
terrorism? Simply put, we could not.
We predicted that conditions in the United Kingdom
could and likely would lead to new outbreaks of terrorist activity. We did not
predict the terrorist plot revealed 10 days later by British authorities.
Let's look back at what we knew then and what we
know now. When we issued The Decision-Maker on August 1, we expected to
receive criticism. We did.
British Muslims and their supporters responded
quickly and in frustration, many in anger. They criticized conditions and their
non-Muslim British neighbors. They found excuses for the behavior of terrorists.
In all but a few cases, they declined to accept any responsibility for the
terrorist acts of other Muslims.
|
Ken Feltman is Chairman of Radnor Inc., a political consulting and legislative relations firm. He is past-president of the International Association of Political Consultants and the American League of Lobbyists. He has served business and political clients in Europe, Asia and North and South America. He directed the project that lead to the August 1 newsletter.
Louis-Lyonel Voiron is a former special advisor for public opinion, speech writing and strategy in the French government under President Chirac. He served in various parliamentary, ministerial and prime ministerial positions. Through his research in the United States with Radnor, he has gathered a wide experience in public opinion and media analysis, opposition research and policy review, strategy and message development. As London-based Managing Director of Radnor, he specializes in pan-European communications strategy for political leaders and in government relations for U.S. and European businesses.
Co-author of “Election Time 03” and a member of the European Association of Political Consultants, he also serves as Senior Advisor to the chairman of Foundation Concorde, a French leading think tank. He directed project research and analysis.
Sadie Scotch in Radnor's Washington office and Cassandra Somasundarum in
Radnor's London office compiled and verified the raw data and edited the
final report.
Our original report: Reaching the flashpoint in Britain? |
We were prepared for the criticism and denial from British Muslims. Before
issuing the report, we had conferred with government officials, security firms
and leaders in the media and academia. We had talked with dozens of Muslim
leaders.
A media 'gotcha' game?
We found that government officials felt that they
were hindered by several attitudes. First, governmental officials and the police
believe that the media in Britain play a 'gotcha' game. The police are
criticized when they appear to be too tough in investigating possible terrorist
activities. They are criticized when they do not stop terrorism.
Law enforcement officials expressed concern that
pressure from Muslims had caused the media to change the way terrorism was
reported to the public, with the result that all Britons are at increased risk.
The media seemed to confirm that assessment. A
general unease among editors at 'singling out' Muslims when reporting terrorism
prevailed. A not-too-well disguised bias against Prime Minister Blair was
evident.
Leaders in academic affairs seemed strangely
unified in their opinions but out of touch with the fact that terrorists have
taken root in the United Kingdom. They often expressed their views in historical
terms, blaming British politicians of generations past for drawing arbitrary
lines on maps of the Middle East, creating cobbled-together countries composed
of different ethic and religious groups. In a development that we may pursue
later in a separate report, the academics joined some British political and
media leaders and were especially vocal in criticism of Israel. The academics
spoke out even against the original creation of Israel. Criticism of Israel is
common in other European countries, especially France.
Non-Muslim Britons were quick to level blame
against the Muslims among them, displaying growing intolerance. Increasingly
angry, they expressed frustrated with the inability of their government to cope
with the problem. They blame a 'soft-on-terror' attitude by some politicians and
the media.
Several expressed the idea that politicians are
'afraid' to confront radical Islam. The media are viewed as part of the problem,
not as objective reporters or as part of the solution.
Thus, we expected the hostile reaction from Muslim
groups but we were surprised at the dismissive and skeptical reaction from media
in Britain and the United States. After all, they could examine the same data
that we looked at.
Plot uncovered, attitudes unchanged
Then, British authorities announced the terrorist
plot against airplanes. The tones of the comments from Muslims and non-Muslims
did not change but became louder. Muslims, in the U.K. and elsewhere, defended
the arrested suspects and criticized the police and other authorities. In
general, they refused to accept responsibility. A few expressed support for
terrorism; More expressed understanding of the reasons why terrorism exists.
Non-Muslim Britons were quick to escalate their
already raw complaints. People outside Britain seemed to rally to Britain's
defense and expressed fear of terrorism in their own countries.
Interestingly, a few U.S. newspapers quickly ran
articles on Britain's problem with unrest among young Muslims.
Requests for comments poured into our offices. One
frequent question was how could we so accurately predict the timing of the
latest terrorism?
To repeat: We could not and we did not.
|
Radnor's services for Decision-Makers
If you want to learn more about how Radnor's analyses can keep you ahead of the headlines, and give you decision-making information to help you adapt and profit, please call Sadie Scotch in Washington at +1 202 659-4300 or Louis-Lyonel Voiron
in London at +44 207 409 5066.
In addition to the
Decision-Maker series of publications, Radnor publishes the Radnor
Geopolitical Report, Inside Washington's Headlines and other private
newsletters specifically designed for a particular audience.
To learn about Radnor
publications, please click the link below.
To learn more about tailoring a
newsletter to your specific needs, please email us. |
We stated that the animosity toward each other displayed especially by residents of British cities seemed to be combustible. We had no way of knowing that our assessment would be validated so quickly. Originally, we had scheduled the report for release in Mid-June but held it while we attempted to gain access to additional government reports and other research. Ultimately, that information confirmed our initial impressions.
The actions and statements since the arrests only confirm the possibly lethal mixture. The outright denials of culpability or complicity by many in the Muslim community contrast starkly with the rising anger of non-Muslim Britons.
Britain remains at the flashpoint. No one else can afford to be smug. Britain is not alone.
Everywhere, people seem to be moving closer to the flashpoint.
Please click here to review previous issues.
copyright © 2006 Radnor Inc.
|
