Inside Washington's Headlines

by Ken Feltman

When he was well into his ninth decade of life, former Florida Senator and Congressman Claude Pepper had a standard answer for anyone asking him to make a prediction: ‘At my age, I don’t buy green bananas.’

I am not yet as old as Pepper was, and I am not as smart. So I will make some predictions at the end of this report. Before that, however, I want to discuss some of this year’s - how do I say it? - more interesting but probably not elevating contests.

While everyone is focused on the battles for control of the House and Senate, career-threatening struggles are in their final stages. Already, some ambitious politicians have been damaged, perhaps beyond repair. A candidate’s dreams of becoming president may die during the attempt to retain a lower office. Take U.S. Senator George Allen of Virginia, a charismatic and confident conservative with clear White House longings.

Eye on the wrong prize

A year ago he was the rising star on the Republican rubber-chicken circuit, gathering promises of support and campaign cash all across the United States. Countless Republican groups wanted him to visit and speak. He already had solid credentials as a social conservative. He was becoming the toast of the GOP’s business establishment. Soon, if things continue, he will be toast.

What happened to Allen happens regularly. A politician becomes so fixated on a higher office that he or she does not tend to the current office and to the necessity of campaigning for reelection. In January, one of Allen’s political consultants told me that Allen’s Senate reelection campaign was ‘an inconvenience’ on the way to the White House. Yes, it is that - and more. It is a pitched battle that may have doomed Allen’s chance for the presidency.

In his mind, Allen must have been sure that he was ready for the challenges of a presidential campaign. His performance on the reelection trail, however, shows that he is yet another candidate with more ego than ability in presidential politics. Not only has he squandered a comfortable lead, his insensitive racial slur directed at one of his opponent’s campaign workers makes him damaged goods as a presidential candidate. The slur opened the way for other disclosures and a rehash of previous disclosures: Years ago, we are told, Allen displayed a lynching noose and Confederate flag in his office and used the N-word regularly. One of his workers says that all of this will ‘blow over and be forgotten’ by 2008.

No, it won’t. The slur was caught on camera and is so condescending and egregious that it will be replayed and replayed as long as Allen is a candidate for any office. His half-answers when asked about it will also get plenty of play. So will his angry outburst against a reporter who asked whether he had any Jewish roots. He later confirmed that he does in a way that suggested that he was embarrassed by those roots.

Supporters groaned at his incomplete responses to the probing questions. He has been replaced as the darling of the GOP circuit by Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. Allen is the brunt of jokes, told with a sly grin and a knowing shake of a head. The ‘in’ crowd at Republican gatherings can be very dismissive. Senator Allen, you are dismissed.

The question for Allen now is whether he can be reelected. The answer is yes, if he heeds this wakeup call. His opponent, James Webb, a former Republican and Reagan Administration official, depended on Allen’s cooperative complacency to sneak up on an incumbent who had his eyes on ’08. That opportunity is gone. Focused on Virginia, not the White House, Allen will be hard to beat in November. Regardless, Allen’s behavior in this Senate campaign probably ended his political rise.

Politics is a cauldron of scrutiny. The scrutiny in the Virginia Senate campaign was all the more intense because Allen was positioning himself for a run at the White House. Allen has skeletons in his closet and the racial slur focused media attention on the old skeletons, too. Fortunately for Allen, Webb has been bathed in the same hot spotlight. The media are reporting on his skeletons. He is a first-time candidate and is wilting in the heat. Webb has written some words that outrage military women especially and feminists generally. Allen should win - unless his mouth gets him in more trouble.

A rule of politics is that when a politician has problems, others suffer. The Wall Street Journal has called Dr. Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics 'probably the most quoted college professor in the land.' We will not be hearing as many Sabato quotes in the future. Sabato went on television to declare that Allen had used the N-word. Asked to supply sources, times or places, Sabato retreated. He said that people he trusted had told him that Allen used the N-word.

Poof! Sabato's long-cultivated image of impartial credibility is gone. Others are now attacking him as a partisan Democrat who piled on. Sabato is a loser; Allen fights on.

Puppy love and equal opportunity prejudice

In adjacent Maryland, an African-American Republican candidate is creating a competitive race by pointing out that he loves puppies. The other guys may soon go negative, he says, and accuse him of all sorts of hideous things, including hating puppies. Will puppy love blunt the negative assault?

It already has. Strange as it may seem, the Democratic candidate, veteran House member Ben Cardin, can do little to affect the outcome. His opponent sets the agenda now. For decades the Maryland Democratic party has benefited from African-American votes, giving few favors in return. Now, Lt. Governor Michael Steele is humorously reminding blacks and whites alike that benign racism exists. The affable Steele creates a positive impression. Cardin looks and talks like the Baltimore area pol that he is.

Cardin defeated an African-American in an acrimonious Democratic primary. Soon after, everywhere he went, Cardin was questioned about one of his staffers who kept a blog with racial insults against Steele. The blog also included anti-Semitic rants and other damaging material. A Democratic spokesman suggested this was all being taken out of proportion: The racist ravings were not so bad because they were ‘balanced’ by the anti-Semitic ravings. Both candidates were smeared equally, his theory went, because Cardin is Jewish.
 

In the background, simmering along, is the theft of credit records. Allegedly, Democratic workers some time ago engaged in identity theft to get a look at Steele’s credit report. Identity theft is a big concern in minority areas. Can the Democrats do much more to encourage blacks to vote for Steele or stay home?

The hill is not so high as it was for Steele because of the Democrats’ self-inflicted wounds. Cardin is not ready for prime time. Steele, so far, seems to be. Although still the underdog, Steele now has a fighting chance.

Good ol’ Tom Kean - I mean good ol’ young Tom Kean, Jr.

Another Democratic seat is up for grabs in New Jersey. Democratic Senator Robert Menendez was appointed to fill a vacancy despite his scandal-ridden record. The vacancy was created when the former Senator ran for and was elected governor in a bruising race. The helpful Menendez was due a big favor. But as soon as he got to the Senate, things started to look, well, curious. For example, he promoted a female staffer and then helped her get a high paying lobbying job despite her apparent lack of, shall we say, qualifications. He helped a crony get federal funds and then rented a building he owns to that crony at, shall we say, a favorable rental rate. The list goes on.

But this is New Jersey, which has a remarkable tolerance for sleaze. Menendez would still be expected to win except for the name of his Republican opponent. Tom Kean, Jr. is the son of one of New Jersey’s most beloved politicians. Many voters may not realize that this is the less spectacular son, not the revered father, that they are voting for.
 

OSo Democrats have been thinking of pulling Menendez off the ballot and replacing him with a Democrat who might win. Two problems: (1) They did this four years ago when scandal-scarred Senator Bob Torricelli was pulled in favor of retired Senator Frank Lautenberg, who won a race that Torricelli seemed sure to lose; and (2) each possible replacement is threatening to create a mess if he is not chosen, making any late replacement very difficult.

This one may slip away from the Democrats because they cannot get away from their own tainted past while the GOP has a reminder of its better past on the ballot. A candidate named Kean may be the only Republican candidate who can win in New Jersey, and the lucky Republicans have one.

Thanks for the help but I’m still against Bolton!

In Rhode Island, the Republican establishment from across the country rallied behind Republican Senator Lincoln Chafee, who votes against the Bush Administration more often than many Democrats. Chafee prevailed in his primary against a conservative Bush supporter. The conservative was widely thought to be too far right to win a general election in liberal Rhode Island.

With the help of the Bush people, Chafee is now a slight favorite to be reelected. If he is, he may provide the vote necessary to organize the Senate along Republican lines. So the irony of 2006 may be that the least supportive Republican Senator will keep the Senate in Republican hands even as he opposes most Republican legislative efforts.

In fact, he barely got back to Washington, fresh from his Bush-assisted victory, when he announced that he was opposing a vote on John Bolton, Bush’s choice for ambassador to the United Nations. Bush has made no secret of his desire to see Bolton named permanently to the post. Chafee is more in tune with Rhode Island voters in opposing Bolton.

The Foley factor

Now for my green bananas: Republicans are in peril of losing both Houses of Congress. They are conceding many races to concentrate on closer races that will be decided by a few percentage points. Republicans will rely on a get-out-the-vote effort that is superior to anything the Democrats can muster. Democrats are fighting over how to split up their campaign money.

Republicans have concentrated on localizing the elections, emphasizing their candidates’ individual strengths and positions on issues. Democrats have a national strategy less reliant on individual candidates and their positions. With so many close states and districts, this is a high risk strategy for Republicans. Turnout and current news events will be decisive.

Any adverse news at the last minute can cause most of the close elections to go one way or the other. A Florida congressman may be the beginning of the adverse news. Late last week, Republican Congressman Mark Foley resigned after disclosures that he sent inappropriate emails and instant messages to young male House pages. Recently, he asked one how old he was, what he wanted for his birthday, what he liked to do and for a photo.

Foley was heavily favored for reelection. Now, amidst reports that Republican House leaders knew months or years ago of Foley's conduct, one congressman's personal indiscretion could affect many other close districts because, while Foley's conduct is terrible, the dereliction of the Republican leadership is possibly lethal. This additional scandal for the Abramoff-tainted GOP confuses everything.

If the House GOP leadership can deflect the simmering scandal, expect the House to remain in Republican hands, by a very narrow margin. If the GOP leadership engaged in a cover-up or tried to sweep the Foley emails under a rug - or if the Democrats can make it look as if they did - all bets are off. This latest bad news may be decisive.

Two toss-up Senate races have shifted toward the Democrats recently, but the Senate should remain in Republican control. The Democrats need to win every close race. Unless the Foley situation spills over into Senate contests, the Republicans should retain control. But the Foley factor may be at work.

The 2008 presidential race unofficially starts the day after this year’s election. Also in 2008, the Democrats will have a strong field of Senate incumbents against a weaker Republican slate. That means 2008 may be the year the Senate switches.

Many green bananas will ripen and some will spoil before that.

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