Inside Washington's Headlines

by Ken Feltman

People have pretty much stopped asking me whether the Democrats will take over the House or Senate. They read the polls and watch television. They presume that the Democrats will have a good year. The professionals watch for other signs: Three old Washington hands have told me in the last week that Ken Mehlman, head of the Republican National Committee, has shifted his words subtly and some listeners hear more doubt than before. One has even analyzed his voice and tells me that Ken’s stress level is higher than ever.

But there is another 'Mellman' who matters more to me this year. That is Democratic pollster Mark Mellman. Both 'Mellmans' are friends. I admire Ken’s organizational mastery. I respect both for their analytical brilliance. They are at the top in a very difficult field. So if Ken’s stress level is at an all time high, what about Mark?

Here’s what he said a few days ago in his trademarked, matter-of-fact way:

‘There's a big anti-Republican wave out there. But that wave will crash up against a very stable political structure, so we won't be sure of the exact scope of Democratic gains until election night. We really don't yet know which is ultimately more important - the size of the wave or the stability of the structure.’

Everything is in flux

Just who is going to control Congress after the election? The answer is more difficult this year because everything is in flux and indicators seem to point to the Democrats having a big day - but they may not, as Mark Mellman suggests. This year, anyone who makes a prediction risks being wildly off the mark. Still, some of the more prescient sages have made predictions ranging all the way from the Democrats gaining control of the Senate and capturing over 50 new seats in the House to Republicans holding even in the Senate and being in control of the House by 2 or 3 seats. Obviously, many of the wizards are going to be wrong.

Last week, I shared the podium with one respected political pundit. He told me that his gut instinct was that he would be wrong no matter what he said. His credibility would suffer and, because of that, so would his income. So pundits have a lot invested in this election, too.

Remember, Kansas happens

Kansas? Yes, Kansas is illustrative of what happens when the right wing takes control of the Republican Party. Remember the lesson of Kansas in 2008 and beyond. Kansas is the center of creationism vs. evolution and the rollback of reproductive rights. Opposition to abortion and stem cell research drive long-time Republicans not only to the sidelines but also to the Democratic Party. Several Democratic candidates for office in Kansas this year are former active Republicans - including the former chairman of the Kansas Republican Party! They have been driven out by the strident right and they illustrate something that we at Radnor have talked about for several years.

• When moderate Democrats are alienated by the Democratic Party’s left wing, those moderate Democrats get their name on a ballot and try to change things from within the Democratic Party and as Democrats.
   
• When right wing Republicans alienate moderate Republicans, the alienated Republicans sit on their hands or become Democrats. The right wing base is not large enough to sustain Republican candidates without help from the middle. As the middle leaves the GOP, as might be happening this year, Republican candidates start losing more elections..
   

• Many voters who formerly identified themselves as Republicans now say that they are independents. That is the first step in party-switching. Surveys show more independent voters this year than in recent years. Self-identified independents are breaking for the Democrats.

The hidden big thing

Every election has an under-reported but decisive issue. The single most important fact in the 2006 elections will not be who controls the House or the Senate. Democrats will gain several governorships - and with those governorships they will be able to influence who gets nominated for future House and Senate spots, and for president. Much overlooked, especially in the business community, is the importance to national politics of governorships. Democrats will make real hay once they occupy 5 or so more state capitals.

Here’s how I see the close Senate races: The Senate will stay in Republican hands. Radnor’s own research - and a review of public and mostly private polls – leads me to some overall conclusions.

• President Bush is a major factor in this election, and Karl Rove’s strategy of solidifying and turning out the Republican base may be effective once again. But motivating the base also creates a vocal opposition. Trying to win from the right, instead of from the center, means that many individual elections will be very close. It also means that we have instances in which Kansas happens.
   
• Tennessee has been quite a struggle but Republican Bob Corker should win a come-from-behind victory. Democratic Rep. Harold Ford, trying to move up to the Senate, is fading a bit as Corker’s attack ads begin to stir Republicans to commit to Corker, however reluctantly. Without the drag created by Iraq, Corker would have breezed to victory.
   
• In Virginia, incumbent Republican Senator George Allen continues to have difficulty shaking his challenger, Jim Webb. This election is all about Allen and his fumbles on the campaign trail. There seems to be an incorrigible streak in Allen, who as recently as a week ago was assuring close supporters that he would win reelection and get back to campaigning for President in a few months, ‘after this all blows over.’ Allen just plain does not get it. This isn't 'Ol' Virginny' any more. The Richmond Republican crowd that dominates decision-making in statewide campaigns is out of touch.

They view the growing Washington suburbs, with their moderate tendencies, as different and almost separate from the ‘real’ Virginia. But the conservative parts, away from Washington, D.C., are not growing as fast as the Northern Virginia suburbs. The Richmond clique's lack of attention to Northern Virginia's problems combines with their too obvious disdain for Northern Virginians. The Richmond Republican crowd is on the way to making Virginia a two-party state. Virginia is a leading example of a national trend. Many moderate Republican voters are repelled by the activism of the social conservatives. The Democrats are grabbing hold of some of the disaffected.

As Virginia continues to gain population, the Old Dominion will become more difficult for Republicans. Behind in recent polls, Allen should squeak through, but not because of his attractiveness as a candidate. It will be despite his flawed, bumbling campaign.

Hold your nose

One Republican Party official in Northern Virginia said this of Allen: ‘He’ll get my vote but he doesn’t deserve it. I just can’t let the Democrats take over the Senate.’ A Republican official from just south of Richmond said: 'Hold your nose and vote Republican. It's that kind of year.'

• Missouri incumbent Republican Senator Jim Talent is slowly pulling ahead of Claire McCaskill. This is perhaps the closest Senate race in the country. Talent is an engaging candidate, with money to spend, and McCaskill seems to have run out of ways to trip him up. Polls in this race have been within the margin of error for months but the steady trend line is now toward Talent.
   
• Ohio's trend line shifted markedly when the Foley scandal hit. Before that, it was possible for optimistic Republicans to predict that Republican Senator Mike DeWine would be reelected. Now, the implosion of the Republican Party in Ohio, which will doom some Republican House members, has combined with the disgust over the Foley situation. DeWine has begun to trend downward. Democrat Sherrod Brown may be too liberal for Ohio in a normal year, but this election is about Bush, Iraq and seemingly out-of-control Republican spending. This should be a pick-up for the Democrats. DeWine deserves credit for running a remarkable campaign under the most trying circumstances. But he seems headed for defeat.
   
• Next door, in Pennsylvania, Republican Senator Rick Santorum continues to show exasperation that he is losing to Democrat Bob Casey. No one I know is predicting that Santorum will turn this one around. Santorum is a too-conservative Republican in a decidedly moderate state. Add to that the impression of arrogance that Santorum conveys during debates and Santorum may be among the first incumbents to be declared losers on election night.
   
• Just to the south, in Maryland, Democrat Ben Cardin has struggled with Republican Michael Steele. Cardin should win in this strongly Democratic state. The headwinds created by Bush and Iraq appear to be just too much for Steele. A mistake by Cardin could still switch this open seat to the Republican side. But Steele has run a smart, tough race in making this close against the Democratic tide.
   
• An unexpectedly tight race in Arizona is now beginning to sort itself out and incumbent Republican Jon Kyl should be reelected. This should remind Republicans that Arizona is no longer a reliably conservative state. So far, Republicans seem too preoccupied to get the reminder. They may win this year anyway, but Arizona will not be as hospitable to social conservative candidates as the state becomes even more moderate.
   
• Minnesota Republicans hoped for an upset but Democrat Amy Klobuchar continues to build her lead over Mark Kennedy. Two effective, articulate candidates are moving toward the close with Kennedy ready for a last advertising onslaught that could tighten things. If Klobuchar counters effectively, she will be elected.
   
• Montana incumbent Republican Senator Conrad Burns is surprising everyone by starting to catch up to Jon Tester. This one may not be decided on election night. Given up for dead, Burns may retain his seat despite Jack Abramoff ties. At this point, it appears that Burns may fall just short, giving the Democrats another pick-up. But Burns has moved up to the point where voter turnout could make the difference. I may be the only one in Washington who will not be surprised to see Burns back in January. But Burns will need a better-than-ever voter turnout to survive.
   
• New Jersey could be the only Republican pick-up. This heavily Democratic state, with its tolerance for political corruption, should have no trouble electing appointed Democratic Senator Bob Menendez. But Tom Kean, Jr., is still in the hunt and may have received a boost last week when the New Jersey Supreme Court ruled that same-sex couples must be granted the same legal rights as married couples. Menendez is on the wrong side of this issue. Approximately two thirds of New Jersey voters express opposition to same-sex marriage. The religious right, which did not think it had a dog in this fight, is suddenly mobilizing to fight for Kean. That could tip the balance in what is a margin-of-error race. Don’t hold your breath but be prepared for a Republican surprise.
   
• One expected close race is no longer close. That is in Washington where Democrat Maria Cantwell keeps widening her lead over challenger Mike McGavick. McGavick is burdened by the Kansas mentality: His supporters on the far right keep stressing issues that frighten away Washington’s moderate majority. McGavick cannot get his more centrist message through. Cantwell, weak in the polls when the campaign started, could not have asked for a nicer gift.
   
• Rhode Island Republican Senator Lincoln Chafee is beginning to gain ground on Sheldon Whitehouse, his Democratic challenger. But it is probably too late and this should be another Democratic pick-up. Chafee never recovered from a bruising Republican primary and Whitehouse has campaigned aggressively and adeptly. The most liberal member of the Republican Senate caucus will probably not return.
  Therefore, when it is all said and done, it looks as if the Democrats will peak at 49 Senate seats. But if the wave is as big as some people think, narrow Democratic losses in Tennessee, Virginia and Missouri could become narrow victories. The Senate could change hands. But I believe that the Republicans should maintain control of the Senate, say 51-49.

'I'll huff and I'll puff'

But will the House come down? Maybe, maybe not. The House is a very confused story. The conventional wisdom in Washington has the Democrats picking up 20 to 30 seats. Some usually reliable pollsters and pundits see a Democratic gain of 35 to 45 or so. I cannot figure out where they get those numbers. I believe that they are wrong..
 

The Republican strategy all along was to make each individual Congressional race a choice between the Democrat and the Republican. Phrased that way for voters, Republicans figured to hold the House. The Republican strategy was beginning to work, quite effectively in some races, and then the Foley factor tore up the script. Polls and focus groups show that voters are not as alienated by Foley’s behavior as they are angered at the House Republican leadership for the inept, finger-pointing response. House Speaker Dennis Hastert comes in for the major share of criticism but no Republican House member is exempt.

Here are some comments made during a focus group in Ohio. All comments were made by people who say they are Republicans.

• ‘That guy (Hastert) was completely out of his league.’
  
• ‘He (Hastert) looked like a little kid trying to hide something.’
  
• ‘The one with the smoker’s voice (House Majority Leader John Boehner of Ohio), what an example he is. Who dragged him in?’
  
• ‘All these Republicans look like they were caught with their pants down.’
  
• ‘Democrats may be bad, but it will be hard for them to be worse than the Republicans. Why should I vote Republican?’

So Republicans running for the House are burdened not just by the anti-Bush and anti-Iraq tide, they must overcome the dead weight of their own Republican House leadership. The Democrats need a net gain of 15 to take control. The pre-Foley American Conflict Index indicated the Democrats would pick up 8 to 11 seats, short of control. Now, the projections show 12 to 22 seats switching to the Democrats.

When I go district by district, I come down to an amazingly significant number: 15. That is the exact number that Democrats need to take control.

Surely, there will be surprises and upsets. But the huge wave predicted for weeks by so many news outlets and political reporters does not seem to be developing enough strength to destroy the political structure that Karl Rove has built up over the past several years. Will the wave overwhelm the levee? The Democrats should take the House, but narrowly. Because House seats are less about national trends and more about local issues, however, I must suggest that the Democratic leaders wait a bit before rushing to select draperies for their new, larger offices. As baseball great and philosopher Yogi Berra put it:

'It ain't over till it's over.'

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