Another Grand Coalition?
This entry was posted on 11/21/2006 8:55 AM and is filed under The Decision-Maker.
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The Decision-Maker
by Ken Feltman
and Louis-Lyonel Voiron
Special Report from The Hague A few months ago, in the political chaos following the fall of the Dutch government in May, Labour leader Wouter Bos seemed likely to be named prime minister after his party swept to power in the balloting on 22 November. However, fallen Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende's Christian Democrats have surged and may lead the polls. With their Liberal Party partners, the Christian Democrats should still fall short of a governing majority.
Voters are deeply concerned about immigration and Islam, with a sour economy originally convincing many centre-right voters to support the centre-left coalition lead by Labour.
| This is a special abbreviated report on the Dutch election to be held tomorrow, 22 November 2006. The full report was sent to Decision-Maker subscribers on Friday, 17 November, and was the last of a series of reports on the mood of the voters in the Netherlands.
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That has changed. The economy has improved markedly and the Christian Democrats skillfully have taken credit. They have also taken a harder line on immigration.
Balkenende's tough immigration minister, Rita Verdonk, has tightened the borders and ordered tests in the Dutch language and culture.
Recently, to attract concerned and angry Dutch voters, Verdonk announced that she was drafting a new law to ban the burqa, as well as other clothes that entirely cover a person's face.
The tough stance is in line with attitudes expressed by Dutch voters in responses to Radnor's European Conflict Index. Voters are concerned that immigrants are taking advantage of the traditional openness and liberal social welfare programs of the Netherlands. They are concerned that the newcomers are unwilling to give anything back to the nation or to assume the responsibilities of citizenship.
Either centrist party - Labour or the Christian Democrats - will have trouble forming a governing coalition with the other parties on its side of the left-right divide. The minority parties have moved to the extremes on either side. Therefore, a Grand Coalition - similar to the one in Germany - may be the ultimate result in the Netherlands. The problem may be that Bos and Balkenende loathe each other and it may take months for Labour and the Christian Democrats to reach agreement to form a joint government.
An unprecedented one of three Dutch voters say that they are undecided about how they will vote. This makes the election basically unpredictable. However, the volatility may be resolved by most of the undecided voters going for one party. In any event, the majority of voters in the Netherlands have made clear that they want a centrist government. They are also clear that they want a government that will be tough on immigrants who do not want to fit in. They may get that government, but not without considerable negotiating by the two leading parties.
Then comes the hard part: Working to reduce the tension that has overtaken the country regarding immigrants and immigration, especially Muslim immigrants.
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